Energy use is historically linked to progress. Steam-powered marvels of the Industrial Revolution created a massive demand for coal. Cars, ships, trains, planes–globalisation itself was fuelled by oil, then a cheap and seemingly endless resource.
But the other shoe has long since dropped, in the form of the dire climate emergency caused by fossil fuels. The price of progress as we know it has become too steep to ignore.
And so the energy sector stands at a pivotal junction. The next chapter of our history will not be driven by unchecked consumption, but of sustainability. And in terms of scale, power, and versatility, there’s one renewable resource angling to take the yoke from oil and gas: wind.
A Brief History of Wind
Harnessing energy from wind is not a modern concept. Evidence of ancient civilisations using wind power dates as far back as 500BC.
Yet wind only began to look viable on a global scale in the last half century or so. The great oil shortage of the ‘70s was a shock to the system of nations riding high on the prosperity brought by the oil rush. Suddenly, people became painfully aware of the need for an alternative, more renewable source of energy–one that wasn’t controlled by a consortium of a few producers.
Developments in technology have further proved that wind can scale. Turbines have evolved by leaps in the past decade. GE Renewable Energy’s Haliade-X 12MW debuted three years ago with the world’s largest blades. But it was soon eclipsed by MingYang Smart Energy’s MySE 16.0-242, which boasts a wingspan of 118 metres against Haliade-X’s 107 metres.
As a result, wind capacity has increased by a significant step-change, from 17,000MW in 2000 to 650,000MW today. Bigger, more efficient turbines have also driven down the cost of projects. “The analysis shows that using the largest turbines for a new 1 GW wind farm offers cost savings of nearly $100 million versus installing the currently available 10 MW turbines,” says energy research firm Rystad.
Farms themselves are growing more ambitious and advanced in scale. Spurned in part by limited shallow seabeds to anchor turbines on, research and investment into floating wind installations have pushed offshore wind out into the open sea. Where, according to experts, more favourable weather conditions may yield greater energy.
Key to Hitting Net Zero
Wind energy has been breaking records year after year. Even the pandemic couldn’t hold back growth. Installed capacity surged by 53 percent in 2020. “Seeing yet another record year of global offshore wind installation underlines the dynamic global momentum for offshore wind,” says Gunnar Herzig, managing director of World Forum Offshore Wind (WFO).
However, we’re still not going fast enough. In order to meet net zero by 2050–and consequently prevent worst case climate change scenarios–wind capacity will need to treble from 93W to 390W by 2030. The UK, which currently leads the world in installed offshore wind capacity, needs 125GW from offshore wind alone. To fulfil its promise of getting wind power to every home by 2030, the country will need 5,000 turbines–roughly double the number it has now.
Across the globe, other nations are coming to similar conclusions. South Korea, whose mountainous topography limits the capacity for solar and onshore wind, believes offshore is its next best bet, and aims to bring capacity up from 0.2W to 12GW by 2030. China, who’s pushing for net zero by 2060, is diving even deeper offshore, pouring billions into developing floating wind farms.
The Catalyst for Hybrid Systems
When it comes to talking about energy sources, there’s one that generates even more buzz than wind: hydrogen. Scientists call it the fuel of the future. The EU has thrown its weight behind it in the form of 470 billion euros in investment money over the next 30 years.
On paper, it’s not hard to see why hydrogen is inspiring buy-in from world leaders and investors. It contains thrice as much energy as fossil fuels. It can be converted into electricity or natural gas. In the latter form, hydrogen can help the UK cut carbon from home heating, which accounts for a third of the country’s emissions. Hydrogen created by renewable energy sources leaves nothing but water as a by-product.
There’s only one, albeit significant, catch. A massive amount of energy is required to make green hydrogen at the scale that we need to meet Paris Agreement targets. Blue hydrogen, which is produced using fossil fuel and uses carbon capture and storage (CCS) to contain the resulting pollution, may do more harm than good. “Blue hydrogen is best viewed as a distraction, something that may delay needed action to truly decarbonize the global energy economy,” says researchers from a study on blue hydrogen.
To keep hydrogen green, we need to dramatically ramp up renewable energy production across all fronts. By 2050, offshore wind alone will need to produce around 1,775GW, in conjunction with other sources such as solar or nuclear, to provide dedicated electricity for hydrogen. We’re only at 35GW global installed capacity today. The majority of that supply powers homes, not hydrogen plants.
Industrial-scale experiments are already being held to test the viability of offshore green hydrogen plants. The world’s first one is set to go into operation next year and will be connected to multiple renewable resources. One of these is Floatgen, a 2MW offshore wind turbine.
Wind will be indispensable in the mission to decarbonise the world. As a clean, consistent, and increasingly cheaper source of renewable energy, it stands to be the next most viable energy source in a world that needs to rapidly transition away from fossil fuels and into sustainability.
