In the renewable energy sector, offshore wind is leading the pack in installed capacity and developments in the pipeline. Last year saw growth surge by a year-on-year increase of 53 percent.
Activity is high across all facets of the sector, from policy making to research and development. Growth is also no longer concentrated in Europe, although the region still accounts for the majority of installed capacity today.
Yet even with record-breaking growth year after year, the market still needs to treble wind power installation to meet carbon neutrality goals by 2050. The next decade will be an exciting, and pivotal, decade not only for offshore wind, but for the renewable energy sector in general. Here’s a look into how the global market is gearing up to meet energy demands.
Europe: Tackling the Problem of Decommissioning
As the oldest offshore wind market, Europe is ahead of the rest in terms of capacity–and the age of turbines. The average wind turbine has a lifespan of 20 to 25 years. Vindeby, the world’s first offshore wind farm erected off the coast of Denmark in 1991, was decommissioned in 2017.
A number of facilities are also scheduled to follow suit. Around a thousand turbines in the UK alone will reach the end of their projected lifespan through 2030. Given the newness of decommissioning, companies, researchers, and governments are still trying to plot the way forward.
But time is of the essence. Outdated turbines drain more resources than they produce.
We can expect an ecosystem to emerge around the business of decommissioning in the coming years. It’s already forecasted to generate thousands of jobs for the local UK offshore wind industry.
China: From Emerging Market to World Leader
Europe has always led the world in offshore wind, both in number of developments in installed capacity. However, a massive push from China has seen the country rocketing to the top. It was responsible for half of new installations last 2020. Now the country sits at second place with an installed capacity of 28.3 percent, just behind the UK’s 28.9 percent.
As the world’s top greenhouse gas emitter, China has its work cut out for it should it fulfil it’s pledge of carbon neutrality by 2060. But the work is well underway. Asia now stands to become the leading market for offshore wind by 2030.
The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) for Global Offshore Wind Report for 2020 has found 70 percent of the market share will be attributed to China. The rest will come in from nations who are making bigger strides in technology and assembling the supply chain needed to scale growth, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.
US: Accelerating Growth
Across the pond, work for creating a competitive offshore wind sector is well underway. Historically, the US has lagged behind other G7 countries in offshore wind development, held back by regulatory hurdles and a reluctance to change the coastal landscape. Currently, there are less than ten operational offshore wind turbines in the region.
But shifts in policy and hard data is fuelling renewed interest in the untapped US offshore wind sector. The potential is too great to ignore. The US is home to 90,000 miles of coastline and research estimates that the country has a technical capacity of 2,000GW – more than twice the country’s current energy demands.
The Biden administration has released plans to build 30GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. To energise growth, the administration is pledging around $3 billion for offshore wind projects. Just earlier this year, construction for a new factory along the coast of New Jersey broke ground. Once operational, the facility is expected to supply structural foundations for all offshore installations in the US.
Floating Wind: Building Deeper for Better Output
Offshore wind turbines are typically erected in shallow waters. However, that’s limited real estate. To meet net zero targets by 2050, we’re going to need more space than what’s available.
The industry has already cast its sights further afield, onto floating wind technology. These technological marvels push the limits of where we can build. And, unlock the full potential of offshore wind. Around 60 percent and 80 percent of the US and Europe’s offshore wind prospects lie in deeper waters.
Floating wind installations also allow turbines to harness greater energy levels. Wind is more powerful, and more consistent, the further you move away from the shore. Turbines out at sea also pose less of a risk to avian wildlife, and are less disruptive to fishermen.
Turbines: Bigger is Better
The efficiency of a turbine is gauged using rated power, which is the maximum energy output these machines can produce at full throttle. And according to the data, increasing rated power means building bigger turbines.
Manufacturers are already racing to produce larger. General Electronic’s X-Haliade, once touted as a machine that’s “shaken” the offshore wind industry, has already been inched out by MingYang Energy’s MySE 16.0-242.
Aside from better energy efficiency, larger turbines can save operators cost in upkeep. Servicing a few can potentially be cheaper than maintaining many, further making large turbines more appealing for developers.
Power-To-X Gaining Momentum
Although offshore wind continues to break records in output and installed capacity, we’re still a ways away from meeting the most conservative estimates for net zero. “The world has so far installed only 2% of the offshore wind capacity that will be needed by the middle of this century to avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” according to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) for Global Offshore Wind Report for 2020.
On the back of this grim outlook, the energy sector is looking into other ways to curb our reliance on fossil fuels. One of the most promising is the power-to-X concept, which converts excess energy from renewable energy sources into fuel for traditionally hydrocarbon reliant industries such as shipping and transportation.
At the core of some of these, such as green hydrogen and floating energy islands, is offshore wind. Given enough support through investments, fuels created from renewables can supply 28 percent of global energy demand by 2050.
The next decade will be a defining era not only for offshore wind, but for the entire world. Expect to see even more rapid advancement as nations race to bring capacity up to levels that will allow us to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
