The next decade will be another busy one for offshore wind. And for many countries, a crucial period that determines the success or failure of decarbonisation goals.
Currently, only nine countries have operational large-scale farms. By 2030, fifteen more are expected to join those ranks, according to a report from research firm Wood Mackenzie. Below are seven of most promising markets that are primed to lead their respective regions in installed capacity and number of wind farms.
Asia
China
Supported by an established offshore wind manufacturing sector, China is expected to maintain its momentum going into the next decade as Asia’s largest offshore wind market. Forecasts predict the nation to account for the majority of market share in the Asia Pacific Region, contributing 97 GW by 2031.
At its current trajectory, it’s expected to eventually hold the most capacity in the world. Projects in the region are gargantuan in scale, and dwarf those even in older, mature offshore wind markets in Europe. One such development, a farm that stretches for 10 kilometres along the Taiwan Strait, will reportedly be able to generate enough power to supply the entirety of Norway.
China’s capacity is set to remain miles ahead of any other territory in APAC, accounting for most of the market share. A few, however, are expected to secure their own sliver as appetites for renewables rise in Asia.
Taiwan
Excluding China, Asia’s offshore wind sector is still in its early ages. But a handful of countries are rapidly scaling growth in an effort to pull closer to their own decarbonisation goals.
Taiwan is one such market. This year has been prolific for the island nation’s offshore wind sector. By the end of 2022, the number of offshore wind turbines built in the country is expected to hit two hundred, according to the Bureau of Energy.
Fuelling this flurry of activity are four farms: Greater Changhua, Changfang, Formosa II, and OWF Yunlin. Greater Changhua 1, a project developed in partnership with Orsted, produced first power earlier this year.
Once fully operational, Greater Changhua–which is to become Taiwan’s largest wind farm–is expected to have a capacity of 900 MW. That’s enough to power approximately a million Taiwanese homes, and will be critical to actualise Taiwan’s 10.5 GW planned capacity over the next decade.
South Korea
South Korea is a developed nation beleaguered by its dependence on fossil fuels. Over half of its energy needs are supplied by 61 coal power plants. Aside from being a significant impediment to decarbonisation, the plants are also believed to be a major contributor to air pollution–a problem Korea has struggled with for years. Twice as much air pollution wafts over Seoul compared to other major cities in G20 countries.
The next decade will see Korea exert a greater push towards renewables. Last July 2020, President Moon Jae-in introduced a Green New Deal, which pledges a 20 percent power share for renewables by 2030.
Offshore wind will add 13 GW to that mix over the next decade, according to the strategy. In the pipeline, 125 offshore wind farm projects are currently in development, 8 of which are operational but have yet to generate electricity.
Japan
Surrounded by the sixth longest coastline in the world, Japan harbours a massive potential for offshore wind energy. Six hundred gigawatts in estimated capacity lie in Japanese territorial waters.
But most of that capacity remains in potentia. Nuclear and fossil fuels make up the majority of the country’s energy mix. The Japanese government hopes to tip the scale towards renewables, and has announced ambitious goals to reduce carbon emissions to nearly nothing by 2050.
Offshore wind is going to be essential to hit that target. Part of the strategy is to install up to 10 GW of capacity by 2030. The gears are already turning, with four new areas for offshore wind developments expected to be auctioned before the year ends.
Europe
United Kingdom
A pioneer in offshore wind, the UK still leads the world in terms of installed capacity. It produces around 14 GW of power from thousands of turbines dotting its seas, and accounts for 34 percent of all offshore installations in the world. It’s key to Europe’s plans to build 100 GW by 2030.
Some of the decade’s largest offshore wind projects in Europe are set to come out of the UK. Hornsea Two, Moray East, and Triton Knoll alone will link nearly 3 GW of renewable power to the country’s energy grid.
By 2030, total capacity is planned to rise to 50 GW. In order to accelerate development, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng expressed plans to fast track the consenting process for offshore wind farms, a step that traditionally takes up to two years.
Germany
Germany is the world’s largest producer of wind energy with a capacity of 63 GW. However, most of that can be attributed to onshore wind farms.
Plans unveiled this year reveal steps to bring the German offshore wind sector up to speed. The country is aiming to build an offshore wind capacity of 50 GW by 2035, according to an agreement signed by a consortium of coastal towns, transmission operators, and the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs.
By 2045, studies show that Germany can ramp production even further, unlocking up to 82 GW in offshore wind power. Currently, there are 188 offshore projects in development in the region.
United States
The US offshore wind market has enjoyed steady tailwinds over the past couple of years, propelled by the Biden administration’s plans to build 30 GW by 2030. Earlier this year, over $4.5 billion in bids were made to secure development rights to key offshore wind areas off the coasts of New York and North and South Carolina.
Beyond the country’s Eastern Seaboard, many more areas are ripe for the entry of offshore wind energy. According to estimates from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the US has the potential to harness 1,000 GW from offshore wind.
That being said, the emerging US market still has significant challenges to overcome to actually realise its offshore wind prospects. Currently, supply chain issues and rising inflation rates are buckling plans, with a couple of major developments getting delayed due to concerns over costs.
